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Prediction for CME (2026-06-26T21:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-06-26T21:12Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/47105/-1
CME Note: CME first seen to the S in SOHO LASCO C2 starting around 2026-06-26T21:12Z. It is also seen to the S in SOHO LASCO C3 and GOES CCOR-1 and to the SE in STEREO A COR2. The most likely source candidate for this CME is a region of southward directed dimming best seen in SDO AIA 195 starting around 2026-06-26T17:34Z centered around S30E05. There is also some field line movement likely associated with this dimming over the S limb best seen in SDO AIA 171 beginning around 2026-06-26T20:06Z and in GOES SUVI 284 beginning around 2026-06-26T19:49Z. A much less likely source candidate for this CME is associated with a C2.4 class flare from AR 14475 (S09W04) that peaked at 2026-06-26T20:21Z. The flare is best seen in SDO AIA 131, but the eruption followed by some post eruptive arcades is best seen in SDO AIA 304 and SDO AIA 195. Arrival characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 4nT at 2026-06-30T11:01Z to 10nT at 2026-06-30T11:22Z. A subsequent increase in solar wind speed is observed from ~340 km/s at 2026-06-30T11:01Z to 437 km/s at 2026-06-30T11:07Z. Increases in temperature, from ~65,000 K to ~430,000 K, and density, from ~1 p/cc to 11 p/cc, are also observed at 2026-06-30T11:01Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-06-30T11:01Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-06-30T11:01Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (BepiColombo, Europa Clipper, Juice, OSIRIS-APEX, Parker Solar Probe, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-06-27T13:11:20Z
## Message ID: 20260627-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

Update on CME with ID 2026-06-26T21:12:00-CME-001.  Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect BepiColombo, Europa Clipper (glancing blow), Juice (glancing blow), OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow), and Parker Solar Probe (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach BepiColombo at 2026-06-28T12:09Z, Juice at 2026-07-01T18:00Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-07-01T12:00Z, and Parker Solar Probe at 2026-06-28T16:00Z (plus minus 7 hours), while the leading edge may reach Europa Clipper at 2026-07-01T14:00Z. 

The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2026-06-30T11:01Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).
   

Updated CME parameters are:

Start time of the event: 2026-06-26T21:12Z.

Estimated speed: ~446 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 46 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): -2/-35 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2026-06-26T21:12:00-CME-001


Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-06-26T21:12:00-CME-001):

https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260627_053600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260627_053600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260627_053600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260627_053600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260627_053600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260627_053600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260627_053600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260627_053600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif


## Notes: 


SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s


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NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Lead Time: 69.83 hour(s)
Difference: 0.00 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M SWAO) on 2026-06-27T13:11Z
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